Will Andy Burnham shake up the UK’s China policy if he becomes prime minister?

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s likely replacement could continue the outgoing leader’s pragmatic approach towards China, though addressing economic challenges at home would remain the most immediate priority, observers say.
Clearing the way for the selection of the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade, Starmer announced on Monday his intention to step down, succumbing to mounting pressure within his Labour Party as his popularity dwindled.
Shortly after Starmer’s resignation, Andy Burnham confirmed he would run for Labour leader after returning to Parliament through a landslide by-election victory last week. Until that election, he had served as mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017.
With his main expected rival, Wes Streeting – who resigned as health secretary last month – announcing on Monday that he would back the ex-mayor, Burnham now appears likely to emerge as the sole candidate.
If there is no leadership contest, the relatively popular Burnham could take office as early as July. Should one take place, a new Labour leader would be elected and become prime minister by September.

Public discontent with the Starmer government has centred largely on economic and cost-of-living issues, which are also likely to be the main challenges facing his successor, according to Cui Hongjian, a former diplomat and a research fellow at Beijing Foreign Studies University’s Country and Area Studies Academy.
“From that perspective, I think that if the new British leader opts for more pragmatic cooperation with China, rather than engaging in political confrontation, it would better align with the Labour Party’s overall political objectives,” he said, noting that doing so would also be in line with the UK’s need to steer its economy out of stagnation.
Cui added that he hoped Burnham might combine Labour’s consensus on China with the views he has previously expressed on the country and subsequently adopt an “even more pragmatic” approach than Starmer.
While Burnham has built his political profile on domestic issues, his previous statements suggest he views relations with China primarily through the lens of economic development, unlike some of his more hawkish peers.
During an April meeting with Chinese consul Tang Rui, Burnham called for deeper cooperation “in areas such as green development, electric buses, advanced manufacturing and life sciences”, according to the Chinese readout.
That echoed remarks he made during a 2018 official visit to China, when he said that the country’s high-speed railway and infrastructure development had made a strong impression.
“During his time in office, Starmer helped return China-UK relations to a relatively stable and predictable track,” Cui said.

“But progress in moving the relationship forward has been somewhat slow.
“I hope [Burnham] can be more decisive and bold than Starmer, moving faster and further in breaking through some of the existing constraints, whether institutional, policy-related or conceptual,” he added, noting that concrete joint projects would be needed to keep the relationship healthy in the long term.
Wang Yiwei, director of Renmin University of China’s Institute of International Affairs, expected that Burnham’s most immediate challenge would be at home as Britain continued to face a range of economic and social problems.
“If he were to tackle social, economic and political problems at home well … he would be in a better position to tap into opportunities from China,” Wang said.
Wang also pointed to Burnham’s long-standing emphasis on subnational cooperation between the countries.
China-UK relations have fluctuated sharply in recent years. While a “golden era” was touted around a decade ago, ties froze after the 2019-20 Hong Kong protests and a series of disputes. These included China’s proposed “super-embassy” in London, British concerns over espionage and the conviction of former Hong Kong media boss Jimmy Lai Chee-ying.
However, Starmer sought to reset ties after taking office in July 2024, arguing it was in the UK’s national interest to engage with China.

Early this year, Starmer paid a three-day visit to China, the first by a British prime minister since 2018. This was followed by a trip to Beijing by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper in early June.
“One should not expect a major shift in the China-UK relationship despite the coming change in the UK’s premiership,” said Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at Chatham House in London.
She noted that London’s China policy would continue to be shaped by the UK’s domestic economy and its ties with the United States.
Yu added that while Burnham welcomed Chinese investments in Manchester, “he will face a strong headwind with backbenchers at Westminster in formulating his own version of China policy”.
Cui also warned that if Burnham were to enter Downing Street, he would face a very different environment from his time in local government.
“It cannot be ruled out that once he arrives in London, he will be surrounded by pressures from various quarters, including public opinion and constraints from certain government departments, and that he may seek to find a new balance when handling relations with China,” he said.