Why This $26.5 Trillion Projection Is Critical to Understand Before Buying SpaceX Stock
SpaceX is a lot more than a space company.
By Jack Delaney
When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.44%) released its S-1 filing, it forecast an ambitious total addressable market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion. The filing even suggested that the company had "identified the largest TAM in human history."
The bulk of that projection, $26.5 trillion, is tied to the opportunity SpaceX sees in artificial intelligence (AI). A TAM is more theoretical than anything else, but what's most important from the filing was the focus on AI. That reshapes SpaceX as an investment beyond just a traditional space company, offering additional opportunities and risks to consider.
Establishing the next wave of AI infrastructure
One of the biggest bottlenecks for AI is data centers getting enough access to power to reliably run AI workloads. From permitting to construction timelines to water scarcity, there are also additional issues to navigate to get one up and running.
Space-based data centers, however, can theoretically alleviate a lot of those concerns, particularly when it comes to power, with access to the sun. As SpaceX seeks approval to launch 1 million satellites into orbit to serve as data centers, it could be an early leader in establishing the next wave of AI infrastructure.
On the ground, we've seen how SpaceX has turned extra compute capacity from its data centers into revenue. Both Alphabet and the AI start-up Anthropic signed deals before SpaceX's initial public offering to rent out compute capacity. SpaceX could do the same thing in space, renting out compute capacity to businesses and government entities with space-based operations who want real-time data amassed, analyzed, and reported all at once, without any lag time.
The costs of AI ambitions
Over the next several years, banking giant Goldman Sachs forecasts SpaceX's AI division will see a surge in revenue, from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030. For total revenue for 2030, Goldman projects it will come in at $474 billion.
That said, the upside potential still needs to be considered along with the risks. In the S-1 filing, SpaceX acknowledged that it was still in the early stages of figuring out how its AI division could contribute to the company. "Before its acquisition by the Company, xAI itself was an early-stage company. As a result, our AI segment remains in a relatively early stage of organizational and operational maturity and is subject to integration, scaling, and execution risks," the company said.
According to research from The Motley Fool, SpaceX is also spending heavily to scale its vision: "In total, the company reported a 2025 operating loss of $6.4 billion from AI, with $12.7 billion in AI capital expenditures (capex) and $5.1 billion in AI research and development. Additionally, the company recorded $9.1 billion in 'other financings,' representing AI infrastructure assets categorized as failed sale-leaseback transactions."
Considering a long-term investment plan
With $26.5 trillion of SpaceX's total $28.5 trillion TAM centered around AI, the company's main area of focus is obvious. AI offers SpaceX plenty of revenue opportunities, but investors also need to be comfortable with that vision and the associated risks. It will take time for SpaceX to build out its plans, which also require significant spending to set up AI infrastructure in space.