The Market Has Punished This Consumer Stock -- Is That Your Buying Opportunity?
It's a struggle for investors to have confidence after seeing this company's shares lose more than half their value in two years.
By Neil Patel
The investment community is showing no signs of losing interest in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. This tech-driven trend is driving the overall market higher, even though it's been a volatile year with the Middle East conflict stoking inflation, a new Federal Reserve chair, and worries about AI disruption.
However, not all businesses have been resilient enough to ride the momentum. Investors are certainly familiar with this restaurant enterprise that has seen its shares fall 54% from their peak (as of June 17), which was reached two years ago in June 2024. It's trying to return to strong growth.
The market is clearly punishing this consumer discretionary stock. Is this the buying opportunity investors have been waiting for?
Investors have been losing their appetites
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +1.98%) was once lauded as the gold standard in the fast-casual segment of the broader restaurant sector. In the five years leading up to its all-time high, the stock surged 368%. This was a fantastic investment opportunity.
However, the company has dealt with some negative developments in the past 24 months. Brian Niccol, the CEO credited with bringing the business back to notable success following its E. coli health crisis with stricter food standards and by leaning into digital transformation, left Chipotle in August 2024 to take the top job at Starbucks.
Shares dipped 7% on the day of the leadership announcement. The market believed that nobody could fill Niccol's shoes.
Chipotle has also been a victim of the uneven economic backdrop. The third-quarter 2025 earnings call mentioned that consumers from households that bring in less than $100,000 in annual income have tightened their spending as they've been facing pressure in this environment. The same is true for younger customers.
In the first, second, and fourth quarters of 2025, Chipotle reported declining year-over-year same-store sales. For the full year, this figure was down 1.7%. This was a surprise for the market, as the company posted same-store sales growth in the previous eight consecutive years.
In an effort to boost growth, the management team has raised its marketing spend, which totaled 3.5% of revenue in Q4 2025. This was up from a 3% share in the prior-year quarter. Profit margins have come under pressure.
Reasons to be bullish
After seeing the share price fall 54% in two years, it makes sense that investors would adopt a pessimistic view. However, I think there are three reasons to be bullish on Chipotle.
During Q1 2026 (ended March 31), the company surprised investors by registering a same-store sales gain of 0.5%. Wall Street analysts expected a 0.7% drop. That's a significant difference. Transaction counts were up 0.6%, indicating improving traffic trends that might be the start of positive momentum.
The growth story is another reason to be bullish. Chipotle opened 334 net new company-operated locations in 2025. It plans to open 340 to 355 (excluding international partner-operating restaurants) in 2026. The leadership team still believes that the business can one day operate 7,000 restaurants in North America, up from nearly 4,100 company-owned stores as of March 31.
A bigger store footprint, combined with the potential for annual unit sales volumes to rise, should lead to higher profits five or 10 years from now.
Of course, due to the stock's massive decline, the valuation has become more attractive. Investors can buy this stock at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.2. This is about as cheap as Chipotle shares have been in the past five years.
Chipotle continues to navigate a difficult operating environment, and the market is showing that it's losing confidence. But this is a great opportunity for patient investors to buy an industry-leading business while it's on the dip.