The Crowd Is Dumping Joby Aviation. Here's Why I'd Be Buying It Down 30%.
Joby Aviation is making regulatory headway. Should you buy the dip on this eVTOL developer?
By Steven Porrello
Despite making headway on its regulatory path, Joby Aviation (JOBY 5.34%) has spent much of 2026 flying into strong headwinds. Indeed, shares of the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) stock have fallen about 30% on the year and trade far below their 52-week high of about $21.
What gives? Wall Street's patience, I suppose. Joby has not fundamentally changed in the last year. In fact, its prospects have only gotten better: The company has never been closer to achieving FAA certification, and it just successfully piloted an eVTOL in and around New York City.
If Joby stays on its current path, this 30% dip could, in retrospect, represent an attractive buying window. Let's take a look.
Joby is the front-runner of the nascent eVTOL industry
Imagine a large drone you and a few friends can ride in; it takes off straight up from the ground, flies across the city over traffic and congested streets, then lands near an airport or your office. That, in a nutshell, is the kind of air taxi service Joby Aviation is trying to create.
And it's not alone. Early on, Toyota became its manufacturing mentor and an early investor. Joby has also partnered with Delta Air Lines and Uber, and it made a strategic acquisition of Blade Air Mobility.
Each of these partnerships can accelerate the rate at which it brings its air taxis to the market. So can the eIPP (eVTOL Integration Pilot Program), a White House-backed initiative to begin testing eVTOL operations in select cities ahead of FAA type certification. The program, slated to begin in the second half of this year, gives Joby a chance to build experience before commercialization begins.
Joby is currently in Stage 4 of the FAA's five-stage type certification process, and it began for-credit flight testing in March 2026. At this point, the FAA is scrutinizing Joby's aircraft to determine whether it meets requirements, rather than just reviewing a design on paper.
Nobody knows when this process will finish -- it could drag on for months -- but if this were a race among eVTOL companies, Joby would be in the lead. The closest competitor, Archer Aviation, recently began its own for-credit flight testing. Both companies are expected to start generating more substantial revenue within the next two years, as shown in the chart.
Data by YCharts
In 2021, Morgan Stanley published a report on eVTOLs and urban air mobility. In that report, it predicted, in the most bullish scenario, that the industry would grow to $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050. As the researchers put it, "Our key message to investors: Temper your excitement with patience. The market opportunity for eVTOL/UAM could be far bigger than you think, but we believe it may require decades to reach high-volume commercialization.
Those interested in Joby today should approach the stock with the long-term perspective of decades, not years. For investors willing to wait that long, today's share price may ultimately matter far less than whether Joby turns a radical idea into a new mode of transportation.