Should You Buy SpaceX Stock This Week or Wait for the Hype to Die Down?
The stock is taking off, and some investors fear they are missing out.
By Howard Smith
The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.22%) initial public offering (IPO) went well, with the stock surging 19% on its first day of trading. Those who bought SpaceX at the $135 IPO price should be happy with the stock continuing to move higher after the launch.
As of this writing, SpaceX shares have soared 58% from the offering price. Retail investors now want to know whether they should jump in this week, wait for the frenzy to subside, or pass on the $2.9 trillion stock altogether. The answer should depend on an investor's goals.
SpaceX isn't just about space
The stock was priced at a level that the current underlying business couldn't justify. But that's not what investors were considering. As with Elon Musk's Tesla, investors are betting on the future of the business. That's made SpaceX a momentum stock in its first week of trading.
Like Tesla, SpaceX has a mature underlying business. In fact, it has several. It dominates the market for commercial space launches, accounting for 80% of U.S. launches last year, according to recent research from The Motley Fool. But the Starlink satellite internet service and xAI artificial intelligence segments are where the real profit outlook lies. SpaceX already made a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor to grow xAI and boost its push into AI coding.
The potential market for both Starlink and xAI has investors ignoring valuation fundamentals. That doesn't mean the stock is going to crash, though. For a long time, Tesla stock has traded on the future potential of robotics, autonomous vehicles, and energy storage rather than on its existing electric vehicles (EVs). But its shares have also been very volatile along the way.
The likely outcome for SpaceX stock
That seems to be the playbook investors are seeing for SpaceX stock, too. Momentum traders may want to buy in now, even after its sharp early rise. But long-term investors can look to Tesla for an investing plan.
The EV maker's early momentum brought the stock to over $400 per share in late 2021 and early 2022. Yet it dropped below $120 a year later, and investors had plenty of opportunities to own it with a basis below $150 per share, even after missing the early momentum surge.
It's likely SpaceX stock will go through the same volatile cycle, giving investors a chance to buy it after the early hype subsides. That's because the payoff from its businesses is still years away. Elon Musk recently said he believes SpaceX can generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. In a social media post, he added, "And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than [$1 trillion] in 2031."
But the valuation is already approaching $3 trillion, and there will be a lot of buying and selling of SpaceX stock between now and then. Long-term investors should be patient, and while it may not break below its IPO price, jumping in as momentum takes it higher probably isn't a good idea, either.