Now That the IPO Has Passed, Here Are 5 Important Milestones SpaceX Investors Should Pay Attention to
SpaceX's IPO was only the beginning. These five milestones could shape how investors think about the stock from here.
By CFA, Manali Pradhan
Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +2.84%) blockbuster IPO gave investors a way into one of the world's most ambitious technology companies. But now the bigger question for investors is whether the company can actually execute on its plans to support its high valuation.
SpaceX stock is being assessed beyond rocket launches. Here are the five major milestones investors must watch to better understand the company.
Starship is the first big test
The first milestone to watch is whether SpaceX's next-generation rocket system, Starship V3, is expected to start carrying satellites and other equipment into orbit in the second half of 2026. Starship is designed to carry much heavier loads into space than the Falcon rockets currently in use. SpaceX must prove that Starship can fly, return safely, and be reused for future launches.
A reliable Starship would enable SpaceX to launch larger Starlink satellites in bigger batches. SpaceX expects Starship to carry up to 60 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites per launch, compared with about 27 Starlink satellites on Falcon 9. That could improve Starlink capacity, lower deployment costs over time, and support future mobile satellites. If Starship is delayed, SpaceX's broadband expansion, NASA's moon-mission work, and plans to build artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in space become harder to justify.
The second milestone is the ability to transfer extremely cold rocket fuel from one spacecraft to another in space. NASA's moon-lander plan depends heavily on this capability, but it is technically difficult and has not yet been proven at the scale SpaceX needs. If SpaceX can demonstrate this, Starship becomes much more useful for moon missions and deep-space activity.
The third milestone is the deployment of Starlink Broadband V3 satellites on Starship, expected in the second half of 2026. Starlink is already a large business, with about 10.3 million subscribers and more than 9,600 satellites in orbit at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending March 31, 2026).
Starlink V3 satellites are expected to carry much more internet capacity than the current V2 satellites. SpaceX says each V3 satellite can support about 1,024 gigabits per second of bandwidth, compared with 96 gigabits per second for a V2 satellite. That means each Starship launch could add much more Starlink capacity, helping SpaceX expand the network more efficiently over time.
Starlink's expanding business opportunities
The fourth milestone is to watch out for the next phase of Starlink's satellite-to-phone service. SpaceX expects Mobile V2 satellites to begin launching on Starship in 2027, with the goal of enabling faster data, voice calls, and broader phone connectivity. A limited version is already available through T-Mobile U.S. (TMUS +2.45%) T-Satellite with Starlink, where T-Mobile provides the wireless service and SpaceX's satellites help phones stay connected beyond regular cell-tower coverage.
Finally, the fifth milestone is whether SpaceX can launch Starship from both Texas and Florida. So far, Starship operations have been centered at SpaceX's Boca Chica (Starbase) site in Texas. While the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has finished the environmental review for Starship launches from Kennedy Space Center's Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) in Florida, SpaceX still needs the final launch license. Having a second launch site could increase Starship's launch capacity and help SpaceX expand Starlink faster.