Nokia Acquired Infinera and Is Now Quietly Becoming an AI Infrastructure Play. Wall Street Hasn't Caught On Yet.
The stock has more than doubled, but it still trades at a reasonable valuation relative to future earnings.
By John Ballard
Nokia (NOK 0.15%) shares have climbed 175% over the past year. This followed its February 2025 acquisition of Infinera, extending its capabilities in optical networking, which is seeing growing demand from data centers that need faster data transmission for artificial intelligence (AI).
Despite the stock's monster run, Nokia is just getting started with its pivot to tackle this opportunity. Wall Street is still catching up to the new reality of this networking infrastructure leader, particularly what this could do to earnings growth. Here's why it's not too late to consider buying the stock.
Accelerating growth in AI
Nokia has quietly turned itself into a vertically integrated powerhouse of optical networking products, including owning a manufacturing facility in San Jose, California, that produces the indium phosphide material used to make optical semiconductors. AI data center demand is soaring for advanced digital signal processors and pluggable optics, such as 800G coherent optics, with industry forecasts pointing to a multibillion-dollar opportunity over the long term.
The opportunity is already showing up in Nokia's latest quarterly results. In the first quarter, Nokia reported total sales growth of just 4%, but the real story was the 49% year-over-year increase in net sales from AI and cloud customers. Sales in its optical networks segment alone grew 20%.
This statement from CEO Justin Hotard suggests this is just the beginning: "We are increasing our growth assumption for Optical and IP Networks, and we are investing to capture accelerating demand from AI and cloud customers."
The big picture
Nokia is tapping into a big tailwind. The Motley Fool's research found that leading hyperscalers plan to increase capital spending by at least 45% this year, bringing total spending to at least $600 billion. A significant portion of this spending goes to support additional AI infrastructure and data centers.
The company sees its AI and cloud addressable market growing at an annualized rate of 27% through 2028. It faces competition from Ciena, Arista Networks, and Cisco Systems, but the Infinera acquisition was a game changer. It has significantly boosted Nokia's competitive standing in the networking infrastructure market, specifically in meeting demand for AI data centers.
Usually, when companies are transitioning their business strategy, like Nokia is doing now, it can take Wall Street a few years to catch on and fully re-rate the stock. The one thing that Wall Street might still be underestimating is future earnings, as Nokia shifts its sales mix toward high-margin advanced optical chips.
Analysts forecast Nokia's earnings will nearly double from 2025 levels by 2028. That's enough growth to push the stock higher. It's not cheap, but trades at a reasonable forward price-to-earnings multiple for a growth stock, about 35, based on this year's estimate.