My Take | ‘Northern king’ Burnham savours chance to take Starmer’s crown

The mayor of one of Britain’s biggest cities took the high-speed train from Beijing to Tianjin when visiting in 2018, and spoke highly of China’s innovation and development.

He pointed out that the 30-minute trip on the 73-mile (117km) line took the same time as “a rattling northern train” travelling just eight miles from Altrincham to Manchester in the UK.

“Railway passengers in the north of England deserve a service every bit as clean, comfortable and reliable as those travelling in northern China,” the official added.

The mayor, of Greater Manchester, was Andy Burnham. Now, eight years later, he appears to have booked himself an express ticket to become Britain’s next prime minister.

Burnham is leaving Manchester after almost a decade at the helm of the city and heading for Westminster on the back of a thumping by-election victory last week.

The election was triggered by the resignation of a Labour MP to allow Burnham to become a Member of Parliament – and clear the way for him to challenge the leadership of embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

It was a calculated risk. There was no guarantee Burnham would win. The ruling Labour Party, elected only two years ago, is deeply unpopular and has suffered a series of disastrous election results.

Burnham’s win in Makerfield, in the north of England, bucked the trend. But this was no ordinary by-election. It was, for many voters, a referendum on Starmer’s leadership and whether he should be replaced by the Manchester mayor.

Polls had suggested a closely fought battle between the Labour candidate, a career politician and former minister, and Rob Kenyon, a plumber representing right-wing Reform UK. But when the votes were counted, there was a clear winner.

Burnham swept to victory with 54.8 per cent of the vote, well ahead of Kenyon’s 35 per cent. The scale of his success is significant. It provides the aspiring leader with such momentum it is likely to propel him into 10 Downing Street.

Starmer has remained steadfast in the face of his low personal popularity ratings, the party’s election defeats, and calls from as many as 100 of his own MPs to quit. He congratulated Burnham but has insisted he will fight any leadership contest and not “walk away.” But he is said to be considering his position over the weekend.

If Starmer holds firm, a leadership battle would need to be triggered. The prime minister would automatically be included as a candidate. Challengers must have the support of at least 81 Labour MPs. The party’s membership would then vote.

Burnham is reported to already have the support of 200 Labour MPs and polls have suggested he would win the vote among party members.

Pressure is mounting on the prime minister to accept the inevitable and to set a timetable for an “orderly transition” later in the year.

Starmer has warned that a leadership contest would plunge his party and the country into chaos. One way to avoid it is for him to step down and pave the way for the “coronation” of Burnham.

It is an extraordinary state of affairs. The Labour Party won a landslide general election victory in 2024. Starmer swept to victory promising change and national renewal.

He can argue that progress is being made, with some encouraging recent economic figures, falling immigration and a cut in waiting times for National Health Service treatment. The next general election is not due until 2029.

But the former human rights lawyer, seen as a member of the liberal London elite, is not connecting with the public, especially those from Labour’s heartland in the north of England. His departure is viewed by many within the party as a necessary step to save it from electoral oblivion and to spare the country from a divisive right-wing government led by Trump-like Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.

So now, it is Burnham’s turn to promise change. “Everyone knows that politics isn’t working. Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be,” he said in the immediate aftermath of his election win, framing his victory as a turning point.

If he succeeds in becoming prime minister this year, Burnham will be Britain’s seventh leader in a decade. The life expectancy of the job is becoming as short-lived as that of a football manager. A bad run of results, even midterm, quickly leads to a clamour for a change of leadership.

But, as Starmer has pointed out, whoever leads the country will face the same seemingly intractable problems, striving to fuel economic growth, cut the cost of living, improve public services and keep immigration at sensible levels, all without raising key taxes.

There have been plenty of empty promises. But what is needed is not just a pledge to change, but an explanation of precisely how that will be achieved. There remain many questions about the policies Burnham would initiate. He has much explaining to do in the weeks ahead.

Burnham has styled himself as a man of the people. He is charismatic and engaging and is generally – although not universally – regarded as having performed well as mayor of Greater Manchester.

Some are hailing him as Britain’s saviour, others suspect he will turn out just like other leaders, promising more than he can deliver and blowing with the political wind.

Yet another change of leadership will raise fresh uncertainties about the UK’s relations with China. Starmer visited Beijing in January. Both sides committed to deepening dialogue and cooperation, with President Xi Jinping calling for a “new chapter” in relations.

Burnham, when mayor of Greater Manchester, a city twinned for 40 years with Wuhan, spoke enthusiastically about the need for collaboration. On that trip in 2018, he highlighted “the strategic importance of forging closer ties with China”.

In April this year, Beijing’s consul general in Manchester met Burnham and issued a statement saying the mayor had expressed a strong willingness to cooperate in areas such as green development, electric buses, advanced manufacturing and life sciences.

Burnham is not known to be a vocal critic of Beijing. There is unlikely to be a dramatic shift in Britain’s approach should he become prime minister.

The leader-in-waiting has pledged to bring unity and hope to British politics. Such optimism is welcome. But he is not the first to make such promises. Burnham’s train has left the station, now we will see whether it can reach its destination or goes off the rails.