Morgan Stanley raises China humanoid robot shipment forecast to 50,000 units

Morgan Stanley has again raised its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments this year, lifting its estimate to 50,000 units from 28,000 as commercial validation, policy support and supply-chain momentum accelerate adoption.
The investment bank had already doubled its projection to 28,000 units in January. In a report published on Tuesday, it said the latest upgrade reflected a growing number of Chinese companies, including electric-vehicle maker Xpeng, announcing plans for mass production by the end of the year.
The bank raised its forecast for annual humanoid robot shipments in China in 2030 to 446,000 units from 262,000 previously.
Full-sized humanoids were expected to become the dominant segment of the market, with their share rising from 30 per cent this year to 50 per cent in 2027, and 70 per cent in 2028, according to the report.

The bank attributed China’s progress to intensifying competition among domestic humanoid robot developers and strong national policy support. Chinese companies, it said, were leveraging large-scale deployments to generate the data needed to improve robot performance and accelerate commercialisation.
Beijing recently launched a nationwide training programme aimed at expanding robots’ ability to handle real-world tasks, shifting the focus from staged demonstrations to practical deployment in factories, warehouses and hospitals.
Under the initiative, governments across 10 provinces must identify at least 20 training scenarios, while each centrally administered state-owned enterprise is required to contribute 10, giving the industry less than six months to demonstrate the technology’s commercial viability.
Private-sector adoption is also gathering pace. Earlier this month, Xpeng chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng said in an internal letter that he would personally lead the company’s robotics business as it entered what he described as “the eve of mass production and commercialisation”.
Xpeng plans to begin mass production of its Iron humanoid robot by the end of 2026. The first units were expected to be deployed in the company’s own electric-vehicle showrooms before being delivered to customers in China and overseas next year, He said during an earnings call last month.
Meanwhile, Beijing-based Galbot has secured an order worth nearly 236 million yuan (US$34.8 million) for 500 robots, according to a procurement document released on Monday by the buyer, a state-owned energy management company in Yibin, Sichuan province.

The deal is the largest publicly disclosed humanoid robot contract announced this year.
Shenzhen-based UBTech Robotics said last week that sales of its companion robot exceeded 5,000 units within 20 days of launch.
Unitree Robotics, one of the industry’s most closely watched companies, is set to list on Shanghai’s Star Market and plans to raise 4.2 billion yuan. The company said it shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots in 2025, revising an earlier Omdia estimate of about 4,200 units.
By comparison, US rivals Tesla and Figure AI each produced about 150 humanoid robots during the year, according to Omdia.
Another heavyweight entrant, meanwhile, could soon emerge. Japan’s SoftBank Group had begun manufacturing robots, founder and CEO Masayoshi Son said at a shareholder meeting on Wednesday. Son added that the company’s acquisition of ABB’s robotics division, announced last year, was expected to be completed this year.