Here's Why I Wouldn't Touch This eVTOL Darling With a 10‑Foot Pole Right Now
The eVTOL industry could represent a multi-trillion opportunity. But not all eVTOL stocks are equal, and this one might be too risky for investors right now.
By Steven Porrello
Archer Aviation (ACHR 3.31%) has had its fair share of good news lately.
The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) developer recently completed the third of four phases in the FAA's certification process. It's participating in the White House's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, set to open early, with pre-certification operations in states like New York, Florida, and Texas. And it was named the official air taxi provider of the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
That said, Archer Aviation stock is trading at roughly $5.50 a share, about 33% lower than its January level. Wall Street has been bearish on eVTOLs in 2026 -- Joby Aviation (JOBY 3.14%) is in a slump, too -- but when it comes to Archer, I think the apprehension is completely justified.
Here's why I wouldn't touch Archer with a 10-foot pole right now.
Archer has proven Midnight can fly, but a key test still remains
Archer's flagship aircraft is Midnight -- a piloted four-passenger eVTOL that can reach speeds of 150 miles per hour and travel roughly 100 miles on a single electric charge. This sleek air taxi aims to transform city commutes by replacing the hour-long slog in a car with a 10-minute hop in an eVTOL.
Archer has shown that Midnight can fly. But one thing that's missing from demonstrated tests is a piloted transition, that is, the ability to switch from vertical takeoff to forward flight with a pilot at the controls.
Why is that important? Piloted transition is the defining maneuver of an eVTOL. "Hovering" shows that Midnight can lift off like a helicopter; "forward flight" shows it can cruise like an airplane. But piloted transition would show that Archer has solved not only the engineering challenge of vertical flight but also the challenge of putting a human pilot in command of that complex phase.
Archer has, to be sure, shown that Midnight can transition remotely without a pilot onboard. It has also shown that the aircraft can be flown and landed conventionally with a pilot, that is, without taking off and landing vertically. What it has not shown publicly, however, is putting those two together in a single piloted flight.
Joby Aviation, on the other hand, has demonstrated piloted transition on its eVTOL. Of course, Joby is an older company with more flight experience. But since Archer is neck-and-neck with Joby on the race to be first to commercialization, the longer Archer goes without demonstrating a piloted transition, the more nervous Wall Street will get.
Until that demonstration is behind Archer, the future of this stock remains uncertain. For now, at least, I see little reason to bet on what Archer Aviation might accomplish in the future when this most important milestone has yet to be seen today.