Dutch Bros Doubled Over the Last 3 Years. Can It Triple by 2030?
The company is growing quickly across the country.
By Jennifer Saibil
Dutch Bros (BROS +7.61%) may be new to you if you don't live in one of the 25 states where it has stores, but if you're an investor, you may want to get to know it better. It's an incredible growth stock, and since it's not a tech stock, it offers diversification for the growth investor.
The stock has more than doubled over the past three years, but it still has a huge opportunity. Can it triple by 2030?
The king of cold beverages
Dutch Bros is a growing coffee shop chain, but that simple description is deceiving. Unlike many popular chains that have a similar model, it has carved out a niche, offering a distinct brand identity and innovation in several categories.
It was the first major chain to offer protein coffee, which has since become a standard offering across major chains, and it has developed an exclusive line of mixable flavors centered on cold beverages, which account for about 90% of its sales. It's not a carbon-copy coffee chain; rather, it's leading through innovation, offering something truly unique.
Dutch Bros is also breaking the mold in store formats, building locations as quick and agile responders to each location's specific needs. While most of its fleet is drive-thru only, it is experiencing success with walk-up windows, and it has some dining rooms. The company is rigorous, though, about translating its winning formula into new stores, since its model is what makes it stand out from the competition.
This is leading to results. In the 2026 first quarter, sales growth accelerated to 31% year over year, while comparable store sales were up 8.3%. While that's strong performance at any time, it's an impressive feat when inflation makes luxury purchases like specialty coffee that much harder. Dutch Bros also has an edge in some ways because its drinks are cheaper than some competing shops, like Starbucks.
Triple-shot stock?
Like most great stocks in the making, Dutch Bros has gone through ups and downs, but the long-term arc has been positive. It wasn't profitable for a while, and now that it is, the stock has become expensive. It fell last year, but now it's up 29% over the past month.
Shares gained 135% over the past three years, and today the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 104. That's quite expensive, and it reduces the chance of tripling by 2030.
For example, net income increased by nearly 1,000% over the past three years, but it started in the negative, so that's not likely to be repeated. But let's say it can reach a compound annual growth rate of 50%; net income would increase from $118 million today to $597 million over the next four years, or grow fivefold. Keeping the P/E ratio constant, the stock would gain the same amount.
That's unlikely to happen, though. Net income growth is decelerating, and as it does, it can't support such a high valuation.
Pulling out another potential scenario, if net income increases at a compound annual rate of 30%, it will nearly triple in four years. However, at a lower valuation, the stock won't triple with it.
The chance of the stock tripling is low in my opinion, but it could double by 2030, and it has excellent long-term opportunities.