China-Japan flights drop 57% for summer travel peak amid geopolitical tensions

The number of China-Japan flights scheduled by airlines for the upcoming summer travel period – the peak months of July and August – has dropped by 57 per cent versus a year ago following a political flap and a price hike in Japanese visas, according to industry data.
A total of 2,629 round-trip flights were expected next month between the two Asian countries, down from 6,317 in July last year. In August, 2,641 were scheduled, a drop from the 6,127 flown in August 2025, data compiled by British aviation intelligence firm OAG showed. The data tracked 23 airlines.
“With geopolitical challenges continuing to impact travel patterns, current demand appears to be aligned with the airlines’ planned capacity for the period,” OAG Asia head Mayur Patel said on Thursday.
Mass China-Japan flight cancellations began in November, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi upset Beijing by suggesting that Tokyo could deploy military forces in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing issued a travel warning that month urging Chinese citizens to avoid visiting Japan, and some Chinese airlines offered passengers refunds on Japan-bound flight bookings. China had scrapped nearly 9,000 flights to Japan year-to-date as of June 23.
Japan will raise visa fees next month for the first time since 1978. The single-entry visa fee will rise to 15,000 yen (US$92.75) from 3,000 yen and multiple-entry visa fees will cost 30,000 yen compared with 6,000 yen before.
Of Japan’s top five inbound tourism markets this year, mainland China is the only one where travellers require a visa.
Mainland China was the leading source of tourists to Japan for the first nine months of 2025 – before the political flap – with nearly 7.5 million visitors.
Chinese airlines, including the three largest state-owned carriers, are scheduled to cut back the most in July and August this year compared to the same period in 2025, the OAG data showed. Their major Japanese peers showed almost no change in flight schedules year over year.
Japanese airlines have sustained their China routes to support connectivity through hub airports in Japan for onwards travel to North America, Patel said.
Some of the former China-Japan travel demand has been redirected to Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Patel added, citing OAG data.