As China plans for demographic crisis, some sectors see opportunity
As China moves towards becoming one of the world’s fastest-ageing economies – a trend causing worry over future productivity and a widening gulf between the country’s working and retired populations – Goldman Sachs said the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors could end up the biggest winners fr
By Julie Zhang
As China moves towards becoming one of the world’s fastest-ageing economies – a trend causing worry over future productivity and a widening gulf between the country’s working and retired populations – Goldman Sachs said the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors could end up the biggest winners from the demographic divide, while carmakers and technology hardware manufacturers may see fiercer headwinds.
Hong Kong and mainland China are both expected to enter the top 10 ranking for the world’s most ageing economies, respectively reaching first and eighth by the year 2050, according to a report released by the investment bank on Monday. Hong Kong was ranked 11th and mainland China stood at 26th in 2023.
South Korea, Japan, Poland, Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria and Portugal are also expected to either remain or enter the top 10.
The list is based on the projection of each country’s old-age dependency ratio – the share of people aged 65 and above relative to the working-age population – and its fertility rate.
“Healthcare ... will see the strongest demographic demand from ageing,” analysts said in the report.
In China, they highlighted Bluestar Adisseo, a Shanghai-listed animal nutrition additive maker, WuXi XDC Cayman, a pharmaceutical contract drug developer and Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical and Zai Lab, both oncology developers, are among their top buy-rated names with the strongest demographic-driven demand outlook by 2030. The latter three are traded in Hong Kong.
Zai Lab ranked among the top 10 in the 2025 China Pharmaceutical Innovation and Invention Index, published by IDEA Pharma, a benchmark measuring Chinese drug makers’ strength in clinical development, research and commercialisation.
The Goldman Sachs report said developed economies are on track to add roughly 4 million retirees aged 65 and above each year on a cumulative basis, while their population of core consumers – those aged 35 to 55 – is expected to shrink by about 3 million annually from 2030.
Other sectors set to ride the demographic tailwind include leisure and entertainment, such as home improvement and furnishings, cruise lines, discount retailers and pet care, as older consumers spend more time and money at home and on recreation.
Residential electricity consumption is also expected to rise.
Chinese carmakers face the steepest demographic headwinds among global peers, given their overwhelming reliance on the domestic market. However, the bank said the same pressure may push them to be the most aggressive in seeking growth overseas.
The bank singled out SAIC Motor, China’s largest state-owned carmaker, as an example.
Apparel and footwear face “significant headwinds associated with declining youth populations”, the report said.
Sportswear giant Adidas and casual wear retailer Fast Retailing are weighed down by their exposure to ageing markets in Japan and China, while sneaker brand Nike, with its more diversified global footprint, sits closer to neutral. In contrast, India’s fast-growing mid-market fashion retailer Trent stands to benefit from the country’s relatively young demographic profile.
Other notable industries facing headwinds include education and electronics, according to the report.