And Apec makes 4? Trump pencils in another ‘big’ China trip as US midterms loom

US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will visit China “at some point” this year sets the stage for an unusually frequent series of face-to-face meetings between the American and Chinese leaders – potentially up to four encounters in 2026.
The two leaders have already met once this year for a summit in Beijing and Xi is expected to travel to the United States in September for a state visit and again in December for the Group of 20 meeting.
Unveiling a new US presidential plane on Friday, Trump indicated he would return to China for “a big conference”, presumably the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit scheduled for November 18-19 in Shenzhen.
“President Xi is coming here in September, but we’re going back for a big conference that’s in China,” Trump said at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.

Trump has tended to skip Apec gatherings but if he does attend this time, he would become the first sitting US president to visit Shenzhen, China’s technological powerhouse.
“The announcement likely relieves concerns that Trump would bypass the Shenzhen summit following Xi’s reciprocal US visit,” said James Yifan Chen, a professor of diplomacy and international relations at Taiwan’s Tamkang University.
But any trip could be derailed by Taiwan, a red line in Beijing’s relations with Washington.
Following last month’s Beijing summit with Xi, Trump said he would speak with Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te before deciding on a US$14 billion weapons package for the island.
The package has been approved by the US Congress but awaits Trump’s final sign-off.
No sitting US president has spoken directly with a Taiwanese leader since diplomatic ties were severed in 1979 but president-elect Trump did take a congratulatory phone call from then-leader Tsai Ing-wen before his first term.
Chen suggested that Trump’s promised phone call with Lai was now virtually “out of the question”.
“The geopolitical fallout would vastly exceed that of Trump’s previous call with former President Tsai Ing-wen, as he was president-elect back then,” Chen said.
He said arms sales to Taiwan would likely stay on hold if Trump wanted another mainland China trip.
In Taipei on Thursday, Lai sought to downplay concerns about waning US support.
“Trump’s arms sales for Taiwan have basically met Taiwan’s needs, and we have high hopes about the upcoming arms sales,” Lai said. “I’m confident that after the US government conducts a detailed review, it can be passed.”

One major factor that could increase Trump’s desire for a China trip is the US midterm elections in early November, just before the Apec meeting.
Trump is facing mounting pressure at home from surging energy prices triggered by US military strikes on Iran.
The resulting inflation spike – which hit 4.2 per cent in May, the highest level in three years – has soured voter sentiment and looms over Republican prospects of retaining congressional control.
A poll conducted by the US-based Marist Institute for Public Opinion found that Trump’s approval rate fell to 36 per cent in May, the lowest level of his second term. And only 33 per cent of those polled said they thought highly of Trump’s handling of the economy, long considered his political strength.
“Should Trump face electoral setbacks, a China visit becomes even more imperative – he would need achievements to prevent his remaining two years from devolving into an ineffectual lame-duck period,” Chen said.
But regardless of the midterm outcome, “Xi and Trump need to communicate and stabilise bilateral ties”, he said.
Chen noted that Beijing’s strategy was to buy time through sustained engagement, delaying US policies unfavourable to China. Washington has reciprocated with recent goodwill gestures, including pausing plans to blacklist Chinese companies such as AI start-up DeepSeek.
“This creates a window of positive momentum, though it cannot reverse the fundamental long-term competition between the two countries,” Chen added.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland.
Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.