American Express Keeps Saying the Affluent Consumer Is Fine. Should Investors Trust It?

High-net-worth households are holding up in an inflation-riddled environment that's making life difficult for everyone else.

That's the big takeaway from American Express' (AXP +1.15%) most recent quarterly earnings conference call, anyway. Without outright saying it, during the call, CFO Christophe Le Caillec commented: "We expect card fee growth to pick up as the year progresses as we see the impact from the Platinum refresh, exiting the year in the high teens." He then added: "Importantly, about one‑fourth of the overall U.S. consumer Platinum portfolio has been billed for the higher annual fee, and we have seen no change to our very high retention rates relative to pre‑refresh."

Its fiscal results confirm this. The credit card company's currency-adjusted revenue improved 9% year over year for the three months ended in March on a comparable increase in transaction volume, driving net income 15% higher. Restaurant spending and retail spending were up 9% and 11%, respectively, with the latter led by a 18% year-over-year improvement in luxury retail purchases. Delinquencies and write-offs remain relatively low as well, not budging from year-ago levels.

It's not just American Express seeing this resiliency among the affluent, either.

Government reports seem to confirm American Express' findings

The United States Federal Reserve typically focuses on domestic macroeconomics rather than fine, consumer-level details. In its most recent edition of the Beige Book published in May, however, the Fed made a point of addressing the current consumer-level divide. It acknowledged that over the course of the past few weeks, "Higher-income consumers drove strong demand for premium goods and services, with one contact describing a focus on 'unapologetic luxury.' " It then contrasted that with: "However, retailers and other consumer-facing businesses noted continued financial stress among middle- and lower-income households."

In other words, the so-called K-shaped economic recovery is a real thing.

The Fed isn't the only organization to take notice of this dynamic, either. The National Association of Realtors and online real estate marketplace Redfin both report a surge in home purchases valued at $1 million-plus this year, despite the headwind the lower-priced segment of the real estate market is facing. Meanwhile, Bank of America reports that while all demographics spent more in May of this year than they did in May of last year, high-income households led the way, with a 5.4% increase versus just over a 4% increase for all other households.

Then again, why wouldn't this be the case? Although the roaring stock market theoretically benefits everyone, as The Motley Fool's in-house research highlights, the wealthiest 1% of the U.S. hold more than 40% of its total market value. The other 99% divvy up the rest, with the more affluent households among this 99% disproportionately owning most of this remainder. The bottom half collectively holds less than 2% of the U.S. stock market's total value.

Great news for American Express

So, yes, American Express' indirect suggestion is real -- while the majority of Americans may be financially frustrated at this time, the smaller crowd of affluent consumers truly is doing fine.

This, of course, bodes well for American Express, which has managed to turn more than its fair share of this crowd into cardholders, firming up its fiscal results for the foreseeable future. The stock's arguably well worth its premium price.